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Pemberton's Outlook 2026

  • 29th January 2026
  • Market Outlook & Analysis

The opening market conditions for 2026 closely mirror those seen at the end of 2025: a market characterised by gradually compressing base rates, sustained borrower demand, and an expanding opportunity set across the mid-market. In 2025, European mid-market enterprise values rose 6.7%, according to Lincoln International’s European Private Market Index, outperforming the FTSE 250 EV and STOXX 600 EV indices and demonstrating the sector’s resilience.

Based on early 2026 activity and our ongoing dialogue with LPs and sponsors, we expect these dynamics to continue supporting strong deployment and compelling risk-adjusted returns in the year ahead and we remain optimistic about the growth prospects for European private credit.

Our annual 2025 Review and Outlook 2026 reflects our perspective on the key trends that shape European private credit markets, including M&A activity, sector developments, and regional insights, as well as our outlook for the year ahead.

Read the full analysis below.

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